state of ohio, obama at 281. if you gave that to romney, look at that, 275-263. that's why it is so key. what is the one state that could keep us up at night? let's look out west. we've been giving it to mitt romney colorado. watch what happens if we give romney florida, virginia, ohio. he's at 266. president obama, what does he need? new hampshire, wisconsin, iowa, all places he's favored and look at the one place that's keeping us up at night, western state, mountain time zone, late closing time, 266, 263, nine electoral votes there could swing it one way or the other. let's look at one last scenario where we could have ourselves a tie. president obama out west is favored in nevada. let's say we give it to mitt romney. it's only a three-point lead in our poll, 50-47.